Collective intelligence in weather forecasting
The concept of collective intelligence and the wisdom of crowds has been around for awhile, but rarely makes headwind into traditional science applications. I’d love to see the concept applied to weather models! Here is they layout:
Create an interface where visitors sign up for an account and provide basic social networking information. Next, they try to predict the upcoming weather. It doesn’t matter who they are, their training level, or if there prediction is based off dark magic or proven science. Basically, we create a betting pool focused around next week’s weather. Frankly, if people place money on when Paris Hilton gets out of jail they should be willing to do the same regarding something *slightly* more important.
Now here’s where it gets interesting. Compare the guesses to the actual weather. Give the participates the ability to collaborate with one another and collectively learn. Award those accounts with the closest predictions a positive feedback rating and prizes. Finally, create a new weather model that looks at the weighted average emphasizing the accounts that have a proven track record. I’d be willing to bet that the results would be comparable to any of our existing million dollar models. Accurate weather prediction and positive media attention at the same time!
